How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
Obligations et bons du TrésorOne-Off19j
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
5.22% or below · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
Carnet reçu (pas l’heure de cotation de la plateforme): —
Prix enregistré
5.22% or below Achat–vente enregistré99%–100%Collecté: Dernière transaction: 99% · Heure de transaction inconnuePrix en pourcentage du versement, avant frais ; ces observations enregistrées ne sont pas des cotations exécutables.En tête parmi 30 options
5.22% or below Achat–vente enregistré99%–100%Collecté: Dernière transaction: 99% · Heure de transaction inconnuePrix en pourcentage du versement, avant frais ; ces observations enregistrées ne sont pas des cotations exécutables.Qualité du marché
42 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
336,4 €
Intérêt ouvert
21,9 k €
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
— / —
5.22% or belowÉcart
—
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 minutes
1 oct. 26, 04:00 UTC30 oct. 26, 19:30 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 1h (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · 5.22% or below
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
Carnet reçu (pas l’heure de cotation de la plateforme): —
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.15% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.
Règles de chaque résultat
- 5.22% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.23% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.28% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.29% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.27% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.28% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.26% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.27% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.25% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.26% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.24% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.25% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.23% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.24% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.2% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.21% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.21% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.22% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.19% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.20% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.08% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.09% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.18% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.19% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.17% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.18% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.14% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.15% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.13% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.14% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.11% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.12% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.15% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.16% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.1% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.11% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.12% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.13% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.09% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.10% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.06% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.07% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.16% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.17% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.07% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.08% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.02% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.03% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.04% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.05% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.01% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.02% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.05% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.06% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.01% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.99% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.00% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.03% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.04% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.