Number of refineries controlled by Petrobras at the end of Lula's term?
PolitiqueOne-OffAmérique latineMatières premières2moisFutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
11 or more 96%En tête parmi 4 options
11 or more 96%Qualité du marché
31 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
475,1 €
Faible liquiditéTraders
16
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term?
FutuurMST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term
FutuurBy the end of Lula's term in office, will he have a better supporting score in the House than Bolsonaro?
Manifold MarketsPetrobras total production (Mboed) in Q3
KalshiWill any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will publicly congratulate/acknowledge Lula as the winner of the Brazil election before the end of October?
Manifold MarketsRègles
In 2019, Petrobras closed a deal with the Administrative Council of Economic Defense (CADE) to alienate eight of its refineries (50% of its refining capacity) by the end of 2021.
- In 2022, CADE agreed to extend the sales schedule by request of the company, without the publication of a new end date.
- In June of 2022, Petrobras controlled 14 oil refineries spread through the national territory.
- The winning outcome in this market will be the one whose range of values contains the number of refineries controlled by Petrobras at the moment Luís Inácio Lula da Silva permanently leaves the office of President of Brazil, regardless of whether that happens at the expected end of his full term (in January 2027) or sooner than that for any reason, foreseen or not in the Constitution.
- If the president temporarily leaves office (as in attending international meetings) and gets substituted for a limited period of time, he will still be considered the sitting president for the sake of this market.
- The most recently available equity statement of Petrobrás at the time of the market resolution will be taken into consideration to verify its eventual disinvestment.
