Will we learn that somebody started/extended a wildfire to win money on a prediction market before September 2027
ClimaOne-Off10mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 77.6%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado19 jul 26, 15:57 UTC31 ago 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Somebody tries to manipulate a regulated drug trial to win money on a prediction market before September 2029
Manifold MarketsHow much of Colorado will burn this wildfire season?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump elected, will there be more wildfire acreage burnt in California in 2024-2028 than in 2020-2024?
Manifold MarketsWill the origin and outbreak of the Wildfire virus from The Walking Dead be explained before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 27, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 27, 2026?
KalshiReglas
Must be real money prediction markets.
- Based on credible reporting, does not need to be a conviction.
- Conspiring with others to start a fire, bribing someone to start the fire for you etc. is enough to resolve YES, if it results in an intentional fire.
- Actively helping an existing fire to spread, including making it difficult for firefighters or other services to respond to the fire appropraitely (or conspiring to do it) is also enough to resolve YES.
- Inaction is by itself not enough to resolve YES.
- Partly subjective resolution, won't bet on this market.