Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 64.7%
Sí 64.7%Pronosticadores
32
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado6 ene 24, 11:10 UTC1 ene 00, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before 2034?
Manifold MarketsNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?
KalshiReglas
Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before January 1st 2100.
- My intention with this market is to provide a way to capture the crux of whether people think RTAP superconductors are technically feasible from questions of rates of technical progress/discovery (but clearly I had to pick some timeline for it to be able to realistically resolve).
