Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 82.2%
Pronosticadores
26
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado9 feb 24, 15:26 UTC1 ene 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030?
Manifold MarketsThe next major foreign terrorist attack in the US will be at
Manifold MarketsWill there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 29, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 29, 2026?
KalshiReglas
Doesn't necessarily have to kill anyone, but should have substantial shock value through destruction of property or similar (i.e. significantly above the current gluing-to-things protests).
- Shorter-term version:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Thomas42/will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-mo)Terrorism is notoriously ill-defined.
- For this market I define it as the intentional use of violence to achieve a political goal, in this case a goal related to climate change.
- So actually blowing up a refinery is violence and counts, but sabotaging by drilling a hole in a pipe is not.