¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 56% a fecha de 9 de agosto de 2026.

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Este mercado se resolvió: Yes (43.7%)

Resuelto: 8 ago 2026, 13:42

Resolución verificada por el proveedor

CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 56.3%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 12 días

Desactualizado

14 jul 26, 13:077 ago 26, 21:00

Tendencias

56.3%

Sí

43.7%

Reglas

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Este mercado se resolvió: Yes (43.7%)

Resuelto: 8 ago 2026, 13:42

Resolución verificada por el proveedor

CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 56.3%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 12 días

Desactualizado

14 jul 26, 13:077 ago 26, 21:00

Tendencias

56.3%

Sí

43.7%

Reglas

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: Manifold Markets cotiza No al 56% a fecha de 9 de agosto de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: Está previsto que Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) se resuelva el 7 de agosto de 2026.
¿Cómo se liquida Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Preguntas frecuentes

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