Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]
WeatherOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 67.9%
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25
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado30 oct 23, 15:05 UTC2 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
"Solar geoengineering" as defined by the IPCC includes any/all forms of solar radiation management (SRM), most notably stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) but also cirrus cloud thinning or orbital mirror deployment (lol).
- Notably, this does not include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as direct-air capture (DAC), biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS), enhanced weathering (EWR), ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), or other techniques that simply reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.
- The IPCC definition of solar geoengineering also (somewhat contentiously) does not include surface albedo enhancement (e.g. painting rooftops white).
- "Significant scale" here is somewhat arbitrarily defined as having an estimated net decrease in radiative forcing of at least 1 W/m2 for at least one month (about a ~0.4% increase in planetary albedo).
- This would correspond to a net sulfur injection of about 5 Mt/y for the most commonly discussed SAI technique -- about 0.25 Pinatubos per year.
- I will not bet in this market.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 68% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]?
- Está previsto que Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description] se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: "Solar geoengineering" as defined by the IPCC includes any/all forms of solar radiation management (SRM), most notably stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) but also cirrus cloud thinning or orbital mirror deployment (lol).