¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Science Corp shutdown or be acquired for less than $160m USD before 2034.?

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 57.4% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

Will Science Corp shutdown or be acquired for less than $160m USD before 2034.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 57.4%

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Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 7 horas

Desactualizado

2 sept 23, 9:14 UTC1 mar 34, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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The intent here is that "Yes" should represent Science Corp failing to become a successful company by 2033/12/31.

I consider it to be failure if it shuts down or is acuired for less than the amount invested to date.
The $160 million USD figure came from: https://www.cbinsights.com/company/science-corp/financials, and while it may not be exact, I will fix $160 million USD as the threshold for this question.
An example edge case is the company closing down but generating more than $160m USD some other way, such as through patent sales.
In this case, I will resolve as "No" as it aligns with the intent of the question, even though it somewhat goes against the wording of the question title.
If the company is acquired for an undisclosed amount and we cannot discover if this amount is above or below the $160m threshold within 2 months of 2033/12/31, then I will resolve as N/A.