¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will mana become less valuable by 2028? (Experimental)?

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 57.3% a fecha de 25 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will mana become less valuable by 2028? (Experimental)?

Está previsto que Will mana become less valuable by 2028? (Experimental) se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 57.3%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 14 horas

Desactualizado

11 sept 25, 20:29 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

At the start of 2028, resolve YES if and only if there is some option (any bulk) that costs less than $1 per 120 mana.

Note that the equilibrium probability for this market is lower than its true probability.
This is because betting NO pays out high-value mana (by definition) and loses low-value mana (again by definition), while YES does the opposite.
(the most extreme case would be something like "will Manifold still exist", where the equilibrium would be 100%).
This is also experimental to see what happens in a situation like this