¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 54% a fecha de 17 de agosto de 2026.

Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know?

One-Off

Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Este mercado se resolvió: No (53.6%)

Resuelto: 16 ago 2026, 4:13

Resolución verificada por el proveedor

CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 53.6%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 4 días

Desactualizado

20 dic 25, 18:5216 ago 26, 4:13

Cronología de Probabilidad

Yes46.4%

No53.6%

53.6%

Sí

46.4%

Reglas

Market resolves if/when I:

Make a bet with someone on social media whom I do not know as someone I can trust.
We do not use escrow.
They use their real identity, and live in a country that works with the US or Canadian legal system to a level that makes it possible in theory for me to sue them for my winnings.
They lose the bet.
If they pay up without legal action, resolves YES.