Will "Empowerment, corrigibility, etc. are simple a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-Off1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.9%
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4
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binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado13 may 26, 20:16 UTC1 feb 28, 0:00 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Empowerment, corrigibility, etc. are simple abstractions (of a messed-up ontology) is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "Empowerment, corrigibility, etc. are simple a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 82% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "Empowerment, corrigibility, etc. are simple a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Está previsto que Will "Empowerment, corrigibility, etc. are simple a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will "Empowerment, corrigibility, etc. are simple a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.