Will commercial fusion plants deliver grid electricity from seawater deuterium by EOY 2035?
ClimaOne-Off9a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 75%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado22 feb 26, 21:53 UTC31 dic 35, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will Australia no longer burn fossil fuels for grid electricity?
Manifold MarketsWill the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the first commercial fusion reactor use inertial confinement fusion? (And not magnetic confinement fusion)
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 29, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 29, 2026?
KalshiReglas
Will we have abundant clean energy from seawater-fusion power plants on the grid by EOY 2035?
- Credible sources (CFS/DOE announcements, Bloomberg/Reuters, independent audits, or major scientific reports) confirm at least one fusion plant is grid-connected and has supplied net electricity commercially by Dec 31, 2035.
- Abundant clean energy” is demonstrated by the plant operating at meaningful commercial scale (>50 MW) and showing the clear path to dramatically lower energy costs.