¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will California repeal or significantly amend Proposition 103 by December 31, 2028??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 50.1% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

Will California repeal or significantly amend Proposition 103 by December 31, 2028?

ClimaOne-Off2a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 50.1%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 6 horas

Desactualizado

10 ene 25, 14:28 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Proposition 103, passed by California voters in 1988, requires prior approval for property and casualty insurance rates.

In recent years, California has faced escalating wildfire risks, leading to substantial losses for insurers.
The recent Los Angeles wildfires have caused unprecedented damage, with estimates suggesting they could become the costliest in the state's history.
Business Insider
In response to these challenges, major insurers like State Farm and Allstate have ceased accepting new homeowner insurance applications in California, citing increased wildfire risks and soaring construction costs.
The insurance industry's withdrawal has sparked debates about the sustainability of Proposition 103.