Will a new non-AI technology with at least as much impact on society as the internet or TV did be developed before AGI?
ClimaOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 78%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 53 minutos
Retrasado7 ene 24, 15:08 UTC1 ene 30, 23:59 UTC
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Will resolve to a separate poll when there is major news source consensus that human-level AGI has been achieved.
- I'll keep extending it until then if 2030 isn't enough time.
- Should have both high impact and wide adoption, so e.g. immortality just for super rich wouldn't count, but room temperature ambient pressure superconductivity in every device would.
