Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2031 87.7%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado17 mar 24, 17:06 UTC2 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiReglas
[image]96% -> 0% -> 80% -> 5% -> 95%
- If anything as bad happens on a pretty liquid market, where the probability jumps this much from similar extremes over many days, all remaining options resolve YES.
- If it hasn't happened by an option's date, resolves NO for that option.
- If ambiguous, it will resolve according to the judgment of a small group of mods, or similar.
- Detailed criteria: (Up to change before the end of march) - 70%+ swings - 4+ times - The swings' high and low points are quantified using the most extreme average over 3 hours.
- If from 1 to 4 pm it's at 74% on avg, and then from 4 to 8pm it's at 76% on avg, and then it crashes to 1%, it counts as the high being 76%. - the high and low points of the swings must get 5+ traders to count, non-withstanding obvious market manipulation of this market. - the market must have a total of 100+ traders at the end of the swings - the market's swinging option must have at least 1000M in liquidity
Mercados abiertos
Exchange
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka83%
- Linda Noskova17%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,9 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Fcerablo
- ABLO+10.0pt72.5%
- FCER-14.0pt27.6%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,9 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Wtamatch WUSO 26 Nosaeryb
- ERYB+27.0pt81.2%
- NOSA-26.0pt18.8%
- Volumen total
- 1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
- 70,000+0.4pt100%
- 72,000+0.6pt100%
+8 resultados más
- BTC 15 min · $78,497.72 target
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Ageabvan
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Kkhaltie
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Ijovcgau
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Azveldar
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Bshecalc
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- How high will BTC get in September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2031 al 88% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake??
- Está previsto que When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: [image]96% -> 0% -> 80% -> 5% -> 95%