¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the income tax personal allowance rise above £12,570??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 78% a fecha de 12 de octubre de 2026.

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the income tax personal allowance rise above £12,570?

Monthly15d

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 78%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 1 hora

Retrasado

22 sept 26, 14:32 UTC28 oct 26, 12:00 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

YES if the Budget announces a personal allowance above £12,570 taking effect on or before 6 April 2028.

Advisers split on this: S&W rated it moderate and BDO rated it low.
Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.