Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 75.9%
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31
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binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado17 oct 23, 18:41 UTC2 ene 39, 7:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
This question resolves true if, looking back in 15 years, it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into AI rather than climate"
- This question resolves false if it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into climate rather than AI"
- Resolves n/a otherwise.
- I'll assume that in either field the person would work on the top 5% of most effective interventions, as judged post-hoc, and that we're only evaluating impact (not salary, personal fit, other idiosyncratic factors).