Did pharma's trade network reorganize more than agriculture's under COVID? (H3-P, 2017→2022)
MiningOne-OffCommoditiesTrade PolicyManifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Yes (59%)
Resuelto: 8 ago 2026, 13:42
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 59%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 días
Desactualizado14 jul 26, 13:077 ago 26, 21:00
Tendencias
59%
41%
Reglas
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).
- Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
- Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
- The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
- Resolves YES iff Δ(pharmaceuticals, SCTG 21) > Δ(agriculture, SCTG 01–05), where Δ = 1 − cosine similarity of the commodity's 2017 vs 2022 edge-weight vectors.
- Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems
