Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 72.2%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 28 minutos
27 dic 25, 0:06 UTC15 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
China to announce cap on lead output by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy 2026, will crude steel production outside China be at least 8% higher than in 2024?
Manifold Markets8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will global crude steelmaking capacity be at least 2,600 million tonnes per year?
Manifold MarketsWill China polysilicon production for 2026 exceed 2200 kt?
Manifold MarketsWill Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined zinc smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.
- This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:
- An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.
- Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.
- YES examples:
