¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 56% a fecha de 7 de agosto de 2026.

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

One-Off

Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Este mercado se resolvió: Yes (44.4%)

Resuelto: 6 ago 2026, 3:14

Resolución verificada por el proveedor

CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 55.6%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 14 días

Desactualizado

13 oct 22, 15:526 ago 26, 3:14

Cronología de Probabilidad

Yes44.4%

No55.6%

55.6%

Sí

44.4%

Reglas

By "hallucinate random nonsense" I mean the thing where language models will occasionally just say totally ridiculous out of left field stuff, or blatantly be wrong about the current conversational context (e.g. tell you you said a thing you very definitely did not say).

Resolves YES if my subjective impression is that language models basically don't do this anymore, or if we end up getting a reasonable benchmark for this and very good performance on that benchmark.
Update 2026-01-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator indicates the resolution is "pretty close" to being determined.
The key factor will be where the line is drawn between "out of left field stuff" and "normal amounts of factual incorrectness" when making the final subjective determination.