Current implied probability
Argentina 19%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$12.4M
Liquidity
$52.1M
High liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Argentina19%
Compare venues· France
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall92% match · auto | High | 33% | -1pt | $19.7M | $56M | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi93% match · auto | High | 34% | 0pt | $19.6M | $805.7M | 3 minutes ago | Open → |
| RotheraThis page | High | 36% | +2pt | $12.4M | $52.1M | 1 minute ago | |
 Limitless93% match · linked | Low | 34% | 0pt | $5.5K | $0 | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad90% match · auto | Low | 63% | +29pt | $0 | $0 | 1 minute ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets93% match · linked | — | 36% | +2pt | — | — | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 35% | +1pt | — | — | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · linked | — | 35% | +1pt | — | — | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · linked | — | 35% | +1pt | — | — | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets88% match · linked | — | 33% | -1pt | — | — | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · auto | — | 35% | +1pt | — | — | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets82% match · linked | — | 35% | +1pt | — | — | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
0.4%2y
-0.4%6%
-0.3%3%
+1.5%19%
+45 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.1B
24h Vol$19.6M
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
2026 FIFA World Cup ⚽ | 🏆 Winner
11d
0%
+2.5%36.3%
+0.5%14.2%
+47 more outcomes
Community forecast720 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
World Cup Winner
3mo
18%
33.5%
16.4%
+6 more outcomes
49 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$185.6K
24h Vol$5.5K
LIMITLESSAlso available on Polymarket
World Cup Winner
11d
-0.2%33%
+1.4%20%
19%
+57 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4.1B
24h Vol$19.7M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
World cup 2026 winner
11d
0.9%
-0.8%17.4%
34.8%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Myriad
2026 World Cup Winner
45.7%10d
-0.1%8%
-0.8%3.5%
+0.5%62.6%
+17 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10d
+2.0%18.8%
0%
+1.6%35%
+38 more outcomes
Community forecast111 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11d
0%
0%
0%
+45 more outcomes
Community forecast135 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
World Cup Winner
5d
-2.0%1%
-5.3%1.7%
19%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast13 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup?
10d
-0.1%14.6%
-3.0%17.1%
+1.2%35.2%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast59 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which Team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11d
0.2%
-4.5%0.8%
+1.0%17.2%
+40 more outcomes
Community forecast172 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Rothera Exchange cleared market: World Cup 2026: Winner.
- Prices are from end-of-day exchange clearing settlement.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$12.4MJul 72d of dataJul 8
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Rothera Exchange cleared market: World Cup 2026: Winner.
- Prices are from end-of-day exchange clearing settlement.