Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
0.4 pts (24h)
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 20+
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
20+ 100%+23.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$147.3K
Liquidity
$660.3K
High liquidity7d Change
-84.8 pts
Market data
Updated 112 days ago
StaleMar 24, 26, 5:08 PMApr 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
20+82%
80+1%
60+1%
40+0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.