Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by which date?
10.9 pts (24h)
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
April 30 100%+10.9ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$97.1K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+79.0 pts
Market data
Updated 129 days ago
StaleJan 29, 26, 3:43 AMMay 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
100%
100%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.8088° N, 37.8573° E) between market creation and the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of Rai-Oleksandrivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.