PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 6°C
Resolved: Oct 10, 2026, 9:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 2:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
6°C100%
10°C0%
11°C0%
12°C or higher0%
2°C or below0%
3°C0%
4°C0%
5°C0%
7°C37%
8°C1%
9°C1%
6°CWon
Before close: 100% ·
10°CLost
Before close: 0% ·
11°CLost
Before close: 0% ·
12°C or higherLost
Before close: 0% ·
2°C or belowLost
Before close: 3% ·
3°CLost
Before close: 5% ·
4°CLost
Before close: 10% ·
5°CLost
Before close: 14% ·
7°CLost
Before close: 0% ·
8°CLost
Before close: 0% ·
9°CLost
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Oct '26.
- The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
- If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
- In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
- To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
