Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
48.3 pts (24h)
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 0.6–0.8%
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
0.6–0.8% 100%+59.6ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$7.1K
Liquidity
$297.5K
High liquidity7d Change
-29.9 pts
Market data
Updated 105 days ago
StaleFeb 17, 26, 10:55 PMMay 19, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
100%
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
- The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’.
- Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
- If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
- Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026??
- Polymarket prices 0.6–0.8% at 100% as of May 19, 2026.
- When does Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026? resolve?
- Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026? is scheduled to resolve on May 19, 2026.
- How is Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.