What will the biggest earthquake be on October 11, 2026?
One-Off1d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 8:17 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
5.3 to 5.4 · —
Loading selected book…
Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored reference
5.3 to 5.4 No observed price
5.3 to 5.4 No observed priceMarket quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
5.3 to 5.4Spread
—
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 38 minutes ago
Oct 11, 26, 4:07 AM UTCOct 12, 26, 6:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Market depth · 5.3 to 5.4
Loading selected book…
Book received (not venue quote time): —
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 11, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
- Brackets: the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome.
- Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
- The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 11, 2026.
- An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
- Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 5.2 98%