What are the current odds for Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"??

Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of August 8, 2026.

Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?

One-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (94.7%)

Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, 6:38 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 94.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 12 days ago

Stale

Jul 3, 26, 3:45 AMAug 8, 26, 6:38 AM

Trends

94.7%

Yes

5.3%

Rules

Will resolve "yes" if "THE WINDS OF WINTER" is mentioned by name, by the abbreviation "TWOW" or even simply "WINDS" (referring to the upcoming book).

Alluding to a future installment/mentioning ASOIAF alone is not enough to resolve "yes".
(previous "Not a Blog" post was July 1, 2026)
🔥 Current streak: 18 consecutive posts did NOT mention TWOW