Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?
One-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (94.6%)
Resolved: Aug 11, 2026, 2:26 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Current community forecastYes 94.6%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleNov 14, 25, 10:35 PMAug 11, 26, 2:26 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes94.6%
No5.400000000000006%
94.6%
5.4%
Rules
See: https://www.darpa.mil/lift https://www.darpa.mil/research/challenges/lift/rules
- Resolves YES if at least one UAS weighing less than 55lb lifts a payload weighing at least 110lb, and carries it as described in the challenge rules, in the 2026.
- Else resolves NO.
- See also: https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/darpa-lift-challenge-participants-a