What are the current odds for Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55% as of August 13, 2026.

Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale?

One-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (44.7%)

Resolved: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Yes 55.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 days ago

Stale

Aug 9, 26, 7:29 PMAug 12, 26, 7:39 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes55.3%

No44.7%

Yes

55.3%

44.7%

Rules

SF Pursuit is a monthlong puzzle/scavenger hunt in San Francisco.

The Time Traveler's Ball (the hunt finale) is this Tuesday from 6:30 to 9:00 PM somewhere in SF.
On the website, there's a link to this form to get legally married at the finale.
You don't have to click through that page in order to get invited to the finale, and as far as I know the marriage thing isn't advertised anywhere else.
Ethical market manipulation is encouraged.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55% as of August 13, 2026.
When does Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale? resolve?: Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale? is scheduled to resolve on August 12, 2026.
How is Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: SF Pursuit is a monthlong puzzle/scavenger hunt in San Francisco.