Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.7%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 1, 26, 10:53 AM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "The AFFINE Superintelligence Alignment Semina..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill "OpenAI's myopia keeps causing alignment problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Alignment (and we need the latter to survive) is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.