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Will Japan win the 2026 World Cup?

SportsOne-OffFIFA World Cup Soccer

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (99.2%)

Resolved: Aug 9, 2026, 8:37 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 11:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

No 99.2%

Forecasters

16

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 15 days ago

Stale

Feb 1, 26, 5:12 PMJul 19, 26, 11:59 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes0.8%

No99.2%

No

99.2%

Yes

0.8%

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Japan wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The tournament runs from June 11–July 19, 2026, with the final on July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Resolution will be determined by the official FIFA tournament results published at https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/.
Japan became the first non-host team to book its spot for the 2026 FIFA World Cup after finishing at the top of its group during the Asian qualifying phase.
The national team has qualified for every FIFA World Cup since 1998, advancing to the knockout stage in 2002, 2010, 2018, and 2022.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Japan win the 2026 World Cup??: Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of August 6, 2026.
When does Will Japan win the 2026 World Cup? resolve?: Will Japan win the 2026 World Cup? is scheduled to resolve on July 19, 2026.
How is Will Japan win the 2026 World Cup? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria