Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know?
One-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (53.6%)
Resolved: Aug 16, 2026, 4:13 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 53.6%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleDec 20, 25, 6:52 PMAug 16, 26, 4:13 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes46.4%
No53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Rules
Market resolves if/when I:
- Make a bet with someone on social media whom I do not know as someone I can trust.
- We do not use escrow.
- They use their real identity, and live in a country that works with the US or Canadian legal system to a level that makes it possible in theory for me to sue them for my winnings.
- They lose the bet.
- If they pay up without legal action, resolves YES.