๐ Will I complete my PhD?
One-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (92.1%)
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 4:38 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 92.1%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleApr 11, 23, 6:47 PMMay 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes7.9%
No92.1%
92.1%
7.9%
Rules
PhD programs generally have a 50-60% completion rate.
- I started a PhD in fall of 2023.
- I have been working on research with my advisor since starting as well as working at my current job while completing my courses.
- There are only 13 courses which can be completed in 2 years, but the research portion of the PhD tends to take another 3ish? years for incredibly nebulous reasons.
- I will update this market with any relevant information as it goes on.
- Feel free to ask for relevant info.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for ๐ Will I complete my PhD??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of August 14, 2026.
- When does ๐ Will I complete my PhD? resolve?
- ๐ Will I complete my PhD? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2026.
- How is ๐ Will I complete my PhD? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: PhD programs generally have a 50-60% completion rate.