Will at least 1,000 people irregularly enter Ceuta from Morocco on 15 August 2026?
One-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (97.2%)
Resolved: Aug 16, 2026, 4:19 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Current community forecast
No 97.2%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleAug 12, 26, 8:46 AMAug 15, 26, 10:59 PM
Trends
97.2%
2.8%
Rules
This market resolves YES if reliable, publicly reported official data state that 1,000 or more people entered Spanish-controlled Ceuta irregularly from Morocco between 00:00 and 23:59 Central European Summer Time (CEST, UTC+2) on Saturday 15 August 2026.
- It resolves NO if fewer than 1,000 such entries are reported for that period, or if no qualifying official report establishes that the threshold was reached.
- “Irregularly enter” means crossing from Morocco into Ceuta without passing normally through a Spanish-authorized border-control procedure.
- It includes entry by sea, beach, breakwater, fence, or land-border breach.
- It excludes people stopped or intercepted before reaching Ceuta, people merely gathering on the Moroccan side, and entries into Melilla or elsewhere.
- The market is about entries, not attempted entries, social-media activity, arrests, deaths, confrontations, or the Spanish government declaring an emergency.