Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 62.5%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJan 22, 23, 12:54 AM UTCJan 22, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves YES if Honnold retires from climbing or stops free-soloing even if he continues climbing by other methods (free climbing with belay or other assistance, aid climbing, bouldering, etc.).
- If he doesn't stop before his death then this resolves to NO.
- Clarification on possible cases (11/29/23):
- Honnold says in an interview or on social media or anywhere public that he will no longer free solo and he does not free solo for at least a month afterwards: YES
- Honnold stops free soloing for strictly more than one year without having expressly commented on his plans or committed to another major project: YES.
- If he does not solo for a year but says he hasn’t decided to stop, this is insufficient for a resolution.
