What are the current odds for Will a 500 megaton explosion happen tommorrow? (Apocalypse Hedging)?

Manifold Markets prices No at 100% as of August 13, 2026.

Will a 500 megaton explosion happen tommorrow? (Apocalypse Hedging)

WeatherOne-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No

Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 12:51 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 99.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 days ago

Stale

Aug 12, 26, 5:19 AMAug 13, 26, 12:51 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes0.2%

No99.8%

99.8%

Yes

0.2%

Rules

Resolves YES if a 500+ megaton explosion happens tomorrow (also YES if exactly 500 megaton or the best estimate of the explosion magnitude is around 500 megatons).

If the world ends, at least you get free mana!

Will a 500 megaton explosion happen tommorrow? (Apocalypse Hedging)

WeatherOne-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No

Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 12:51 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 99.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 days ago

Stale

Aug 12, 26, 5:19 AMAug 13, 26, 12:51 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes0.2%

No99.8%

99.8%

Yes

0.2%

Rules

Resolves YES if a 500+ megaton explosion happens tomorrow (also YES if exactly 500 megaton or the best estimate of the explosion magnitude is around 500 megatons).

If the world ends, at least you get free mana!

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a 500 megaton explosion happen tommorrow? (Apocalypse Hedging)?: Manifold Markets prices No at 100% as of August 13, 2026.
When does Will a 500 megaton explosion happen tommorrow? (Apocalypse Hedging) resolve?: Will a 500 megaton explosion happen tommorrow? (Apocalypse Hedging) is scheduled to resolve on August 13, 2026.
How is Will a 500 megaton explosion happen tommorrow? (Apocalypse Hedging) settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a 500+ megaton explosion happens tomorrow (also YES if exactly 500 megaton or the best estimate of the explosion magnitude is around 500 megatons).

Will a 500 megaton explosion happen tommorrow? (Apocalypse Hedging)

Will a 500 megaton explosion happen tommorrow? (Apocalypse Hedging)

Frequently asked questions

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