Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: August 13 (69.7%)
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 3:16 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastAugust 13 69.7%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+80.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleAug 11, 26, 1:05 AMAug 13, 26, 3:16 PM
Probability Timeline
August 111.9%
August 124.3%
August 1369.7%
August 1417.1%
Other7%
69.7%
17.1%
7%
4.3%
1.9%
Rules
Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/
- Subtropical storm also counts.
- Resolves to the UTC time written in the advisory text.
- N/A if does not form in 2026.
- Will add days to the answers as needed.
Open markets
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Aug 21, 2026?
- 82° to 83°38.1%
- 80° to 81°35.2%
- 84° or above16.2%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.8K
- 24h Vol
- $105.6K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Aug 21, 2026?
- Boston+24.0pt99%
- Las Vegas99%
- Miami+11.0pt86%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $107.4K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Aug 21, 2026?
- 77° to 78°43%
- 76° or below32.7%
- 79° to 80°18.7%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43.7K
- 24h Vol
- $43.4K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Aug 21, 2026?
- 92° to 93°64.1%
- 90° to 91°15.5%
- 94° to 95°15.5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.3K
- 24h Vol
- $36.3K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Las Vegas on Aug 21, 2026?
- 108° to 109°54.5%
- 106° to 107°20.8%
- 110° or above12.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.1K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 22?
- 34°C+15.5pt60.6%
- 35°C+0.5pt32.7%
- 33°C-12.8pt4.8%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 22?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Aug 21, 2026?
- Consecutive days of average temperature in Austin above 90°F - week of Aug 18, 2026
- Highest temperature in Seattle on Aug 21, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 23?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on August 22?
- Highest temperature in Paris on August 22?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Aug 21, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Oklahoma City on Aug 21, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Aug 21, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Aug 21, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Tropical Storm Lala form? (CP)?
- Manifold Markets prices August 13 at 70% as of August 14, 2026.
- When does When will Tropical Storm Lala form? (CP) resolve?
- When will Tropical Storm Lala form? (CP) is scheduled to resolve on August 13, 2026.
- How is When will Tropical Storm Lala form? (CP) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/