Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Circuits including the Champs-Elysses and the Butte Montmartre, with GC times taken before the riders cross Montmartre (2025 option) (79.6%)
Resolved: Jul 27, 2026, 1:31 AM
Provider-verified resolution
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Current community forecastCircuits including the Champs-Elysses and the Butte Montmartre, with GC times taken before the riders cross Montmartre (2025 option) 79.6%+74.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleJul 28, 25, 7:17 AMJul 27, 26, 1:31 AM
Probability Timeline
Circuits of the Champs-Elysses only (traditional/2023 option)0.7%
Circuits including the Champs-Elysses and the Butte Montmartre, with GC times taken before the riders cross Montmartre (2025 option)79.6%
Circuits including the Champs-Elysses and the Butte Montmartre, with GC times taken on the finish line or after the riders have crossed Montmartre at least once18.2%
Other course (alternate Paris circuits, time trial)1.5%
79.6%
18.2%
1.5%
0.7%
Rules
The final stage of the Tour de France 2025 featured a new course to the race, finishing with three circuits that included the Champs Elysses as well as a climb of the Butte Montmartre, which also featured in the 2024 Paris Olympics road race circuit.
- In the 2025 edition, the organizers made the decision to take the GC times for the stage before the riders took to the Montmartre for the first time, which certainly affected the dynamics of the race.
- What will the Tour de France organizers choose to do for the final stage of the 2026 Tour de France?
