Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Tadej Pogacar
Resolved: Jul 27, 2026, 12:28 AM
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current community forecastTadej Pogacar 100%+1.0ptLeader of 25 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleJul 1, 26, 4:36 PMJul 26, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Tadej Pogacar100%
Jonas Vingegaard78.8%
Paul Seixas70%
Isaac del Toro80%
Florian Lipowitz0%
Remco Evenepoel90%
Juan Ayuso40%
Tom Pidcock20%
Tobias Halland Johannesen0%
Cian Uijtdebroeks7.5%
Richard Carapaz24.4%
Mattias Skjelmose50%
Antonio Tiberi0%
Matteo Jorgenson0%
Matthew Riccitello0%
Thymen Arensman0%
Kevin Vauquelin0%
Ilan van Wilder0%
Egan Bernal0%
Sepp Kuss0%
Yannis Voisard0%
Lenny Martinez60%
Jordan Jegat10%
Davide Piganzoli0%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
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20%
10%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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0%
Rules
At the end of the Tour, each rider will resolve as follows: 100% (YES) for the 1st place rider on GC, 90% for 2nd, 80% for 3rd, etc., down to 10% for 10th.
- Any rider who finishes outside the top 10 or DNFs will resolve NO.
