Jason Arday leaves Cambridge before 2028
One-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (91.1%)
Resolved: Aug 5, 2026, 7:48 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 91.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 days ago
StaleAug 3, 26, 9:58 PMAug 5, 26, 7:48 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes91.1%
No8.900000000000006%
91.1%
8.9%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Jason Arday is no longer employed by the University of Cambridge in any academic capacity (including as a professor, lecturer, or researcher) on or before December 31, 2027.
- The market resolves to NO if he remains employed by the University of Cambridge as of December 31, 2027.
- Source of Truth: Employment status will be verified using the official University of Cambridge Faculty of Education staff directory or via official statements from the University of Cambridge and major reputable news outlets (such as The Guardian, The Telegraph, or Times Higher Education).
- Leaves of Absence: If Professor Arday is on a temporary sabbatical, suspension, or medical leave of absence but remains officially on the university payroll, the market resolves to NO.
- Termination/Resignation: If he permanently leaves his role due to resignation, termination, retirement, or transfer to another institution, the market resolves to YES.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Jason Arday leaves Cambridge before 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of August 6, 2026.
- When does Jason Arday leaves Cambridge before 2028 resolve?
- Jason Arday leaves Cambridge before 2028 is scheduled to resolve on August 5, 2026.
- How is Jason Arday leaves Cambridge before 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria