Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 5 (99.2%)
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, 6:54 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecast5 99.2%+11.2ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleJul 9, 26, 7:33 AMJul 26, 26, 6:54 PM
Probability Timeline
10.1%
20.1%
30.2%
40.2%
599.2%
6+0.3%
99.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official final classifications of the 2026 Tour de France (July 4 – July 26, 2026).
- The winning option will be determined by the total number of individual stage victories officially credited to Tadej Pogačar during the race.
- Individual stage wins will be verified using the Official Tour de France Results or ProCyclingStats.
- Only individual stage wins count.
- Team Time Trials (such as Stage 1) do not count toward Pogačar's individual total unless he is the first rider across the line and officially credited with the stage win.
