Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 3 (95.6%)
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, 6:10 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecast3 95.6%+4.4ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
45
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleJul 3, 26, 4:56 PMJul 26, 26, 6:10 PM
Probability Timeline
20.3%
395.6%
42.2%
50.9%
60.6%
Other0.5%
95.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
Rules
The rider must actually 'officially' wear the jersey, either in the award ceremony at the end of a stage or in the race the next day.
- The last time 5 riders wore the yellow jersey was 2020, and before that 2013.
- Most other years in that time span have seen 4 riders wear the yellow jersey.
- In the 2024 edition, only 3 riders wore the yellow jersey.
- Because the platform does not allow me to withdraw liquidity on this question type, I reserve the right to close this market at any time, and I may also consult in the comment section to reopen the market.
- maillot jaune TDF le tour
