Has my ex blocked me?
One-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (58.5%)
Resolved: Aug 20, 2026, 1:52 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 58.5%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 26, 4:25 AMAug 20, 26, 1:52 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes41.5%
No58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Rules
As of market creation, I've messaged my ex at about 8 PM today and they haven't responded or read the message yet.
- My ex is usually awake at this time, and they have read receipts turned on as of last week.
- My ex usually responds to texts within a few minutes.
- If the message is not marked as "Read" and I haven't received a text, call, or voicemail from my ex at the end of August, I'll assume I'm blocked and resolve YES.
- (Since if they've blocked me, I will never know for sure).
- During our last text exchange a week ago, my ex told me they are not interested in me romantically and won't be dating me again, but would be happy to be friends.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Has my ex blocked me??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Has my ex blocked me? resolve?
- Has my ex blocked me? is scheduled to resolve on August 20, 2026.
- How is Has my ex blocked me? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As of market creation, I've messaged my ex at about 8 PM today and they haven't responded or read the message yet.