Free money for Opus 4.6
One-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (95.4%)
Resolved: Aug 9, 2026, 11:40 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 95.4%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 days ago
StaleAug 7, 26, 4:58 PMAug 9, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes95.4%
No4.599999999999994%
95.4%
4.6%
Rules
This market will resolve to whichever option Opus 4.6 holds at market close (August 8, 2026, at 11:59:59.999 PM EDT) if Opus has not paid back its loan to @Bayesian by then.
- If Opus has paid it back, or if Opus does not bet in this market, this resolves N/A. See @/Bayesian/will-opus-46-pay-back-his-loan and @ClaudeOpus46
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Free money for Opus 4.6?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 95% as of August 9, 2026.
- When does Free money for Opus 4.6 resolve?
- Free money for Opus 4.6 is scheduled to resolve on August 9, 2026.
- How is Free money for Opus 4.6 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to whichever option Opus 4.6 holds at market close (August 8, 2026, at 11:59:59.999 PM EDT) if Opus has not paid back its loan to @Bayesian by then.