Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: George Russell (5%)
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, 3:20 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastKimi Antonelli 41%+9.0ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+16.1 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 13, 26, 8:01 PMAug 21, 26, 2:25 PM
Probability Timeline
Kimi Antonelli41%
George Russell5%
Lewis Hamilton10.8%
Charles Leclerc9.6%
Lando Norris23.1%
Oscar Piastri5.1%
Max Verstappen4.2%
Other1.3%
41%
23.1%
10.8%
9.6%
5.1%
5%
4.2%
1.2%
Rules
Each answer resolves YES iff that driver is P1 in the official Sprint Qualifying classification; all others resolve NO.
- Grid penalties do not change the result. “Other” covers any unlisted driver.
- If the relevant session has no official classification, resolves N/A. Source: official Dutch GP weekend and official results.
- Related Dutch GP markets:
- Mercedes SQ3
- Sprint winner
