What are the current odds for DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio??

Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of August 12, 2026.

DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?

One-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (91.3%)

Resolved: Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 91.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 days ago

Stale

Nov 14, 25, 10:36 PMAug 11, 26, 2:25 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes8.7%

No91.3%

91.3%

Yes

8.7%

Rules

See: https://www.darpa.mil/lift https://www.darpa.mil/research/challenges/lift/rules

Resolves YES if at least one UAS weighing less than 55lb lifts a payload weighing at least 4 times more than its weight, and carries it as described in the challenge rules, in the 2026.
Else resolves NO.
See also: https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-the-darpa-lift-challenge-have