What are the current odds for AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense??

Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of August 7, 2026.

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

One-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (44.4%)

Resolved: Aug 6, 2026, 3:14 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 55.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 14 days ago

Stale

Oct 13, 22, 3:52 PMAug 6, 26, 3:14 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes44.4%

No55.6%

55.6%

Yes

44.4%

Rules

By "hallucinate random nonsense" I mean the thing where language models will occasionally just say totally ridiculous out of left field stuff, or blatantly be wrong about the current conversational context (e.g. tell you you said a thing you very definitely did not say).

Resolves YES if my subjective impression is that language models basically don't do this anymore, or if we end up getting a reasonable benchmark for this and very good performance on that benchmark.
Update 2026-01-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator indicates the resolution is "pretty close" to being determined.
The key factor will be where the line is drawn between "out of left field stuff" and "normal amounts of factual incorrectness" when making the final subjective determination.