Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 87%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 15, 25, 8:39 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Will the total number of confirmed tornadoes in the United States during 2026 exceed 1,400?
- Context: The U.S. averages approximately 1,200-1,333 tornadoes annually.
- In 2024, there were 1,855 tornadoes (second-highest on record), and 2025 is tracking at 1,283 tornadoes as of October.
- This market resolves based on the final official tornado count from NOAA's National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.
- Resolution: This market resolves YES if the final 2026 tornado count published by NOAA/SPC exceeds 1,400.
- Resolves NO if the count is 1,400 or below.