Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 12, 2026, 9:56 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
No 60.7%
No 60.7%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 12, 26, 6:00 AM UTCOct 14, 26, 5:30 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik: Set 1 Winner
KalshiArthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik: Game Spread
KalshiArthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik: Exact Match Score
KalshiArthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik: Total Games
KalshiShanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik
PolymarketWill Arthur Fils end the 2026 ATP Tour Season in the top 5?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Jakub Mensik in the ATP Shanghai Masters, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 02:00 UTC.
- This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Jakub Mensik.
- This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Arthur Gea.
- If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 23:59 UTC (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
- If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
- If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik · Gea vs. Mensik: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 — Over 85%