KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Comeback / Come Back (99%)
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, 9:46 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 14, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability
VAR 99%+20.0ptLeader of 38 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.9M
Liquidity
$2.7M
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 49 days ago
StaleJul 11, 26, 10:10 PMJul 28, 26, 7:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Equalizer2%
VAR77%
Cowboys3%
Zlatan / Ibrahimovic80%
Penalty Kick53%
Champion97%
What a Save6%
Soccer5%
Messi85%
Red Card28%
Own Goal2%
Nutmeg / Meg73%
Maradona / Pelé2%
Qatar59%
Golden Ball1%
Gianni / Infantino92%
Crossbar10%
Ronaldo3%
Record91%
Golden Boot18%
Lenovo1%
Captain12%
Shakira1%
Hattrick / Hat Trick4%
AT&T Stadium2%
Powerade40%
Texas12%
Handball73%
Barcelona94%
Shutout / Shut Out51%
What a Strike / What a Finish40%
Ballon d'Or76%
Keyne / Brother99%
GOAT2%
Comeback / Come Back88%
Trump1%
Zidane5%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
28%
18%
12%
Rules
If any official broadcast commentator - includes play by play, color commentator, rules analyst or sideline reporter says the named outcome as part of France vs Spain , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Video of the France vs Spain originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026 will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the France vs Spain originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
- Commentary will count following kickoff and end once the match has concluded, inclusive of extra time and/or a penalty shootout.
- Commentary will no longer count following the referee's final whistle.
